John Lackey has an excellent Post Season history, but it’s just that, history. The past is only a tiny indicator of what can happen in the present.
This season he’s struggled a bit for us since his acquisition around the trade deadline. Meanwhile Shelby Miller has turned things around thanks to an improved sinker and increased usage of his curveball.
Here’s their respective stats since The beginning of September:
September 4.43 1.388
September 1.48 0.857
This is over five starts for Miller and four for Lackey, respectively.
Therefore momentum appears to be on Millers side. While I realize momentum can also be a little controversial, it’s not as bad, in my mind, as trusting a guy for what he’s done in previous years and disregarding recent history.
Of course there’s another factor, one which favors Lackey, and that’s exposure. Being a guy who’s pitched mostly in the AL, the Dodgers haven’t seen much of him, if at all. (I’m not sure if they’ve faced him in inter-league match-ups or not) Miller has only pitched in the NL in his brief career, so the Dodgers have seen him a few times.
Even with that though, I still think that you should ride the hot hand, and that’s Miller.
I hope I’m wrong.
As always, thanks for reading.