Talent Versus Experience: Round Five Million

As the title indicates, the talent .vs experience debate is an old, old, old debate. Who starts in the playoff run? The sage veteran or the young gun?

Somebody at ESPN, I forget who, slotted John Lackey as our third starter in the playoffs, citing his solid playoff numbers. Mr. Lackey, however, hasn’t been very impressive in his turn as a Cardinal.

His overall numbers for the Cardinals

ERA              WHIP             Opponents BA

5.05              1.489                   .309

If that trend continues, there’s no way he should be our third starter in the playoffs. I know he has solid playoff numbers, but you don’t suddenly become a different pitcher in the playoffs.

Instead, I offer this guy, and his numbers for the last 28 days., which encompasses five starts.

ERA           WHIP       Opponent’s BA

2.45            0.970           .167

This guy is Shelby Miller, who you may have heard, has re-invented himself, throwing his sinker and curve more. Before you start screaming “Small Sample Size!!” At me, the key point here is Miller is trending upward while Lackey is trending downward. If these two maintain their current trajectories, it seems obvious that Miller, not Lackey, should be our third starter come playoff time, Lackey’s playoff history notwithstanding.

As always, thanks for reading.

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